day 11 wrap-up

togo v. switzerland

the worst possible result, from a korean perspective, in this match has happened.

switzerland have just beaten togo, 0-2, which now puts the swiss on top of the table because of a greater goal difference than korea, +2 to +1. korea were hoping to face a switzerland squad with near-zero chance to advance, but, alas, that’s not going to be the case. korea are now going to be facing the team that has looked the strongest, over the first two matches, of any of the group.

this means that, on saturday morning 4am (korea time), korea must beat switzerland to qualify for the next round. a draw with the swiss will not eliminate korea, but they will need help from the togolese, who are certainly capable of providing that help, but, given their inner-camp turmoil, it is not something to count on.

so, here’s how it breaks down:

if korea win and france win, then they’re both through

if korea lose and france lose, the switzerland and korea advance

if korea and switzerland draw (any scoreline), and france draw with or only win by 1-0 to togo, then korea and switzerland advance (korea pipping france on goals for, though level on points {5} and goal difference {+1})

if france lose, then, regardless of the outcome of their game, switzerland and korea advance.if korea and switzerland draw (any scoreline), and france win by one goal and score three more goals than did korea against switzerland, then france and switzerland go though (example: korea draw, 0-0, then france must have a one-goal win and score three goals or more because the tiebreaker between teams level on points and goal difference is the number of goals for, not the number of goals against)

if korea and switzerland draw (any scoreline), and france win by 2 or more goals (any scoreline), then switzerland and france advance (france and korea will level on points (5), but france will have a greater goal difference, +2, than korea, +1, would have.if korea and switzerland draw (any scoreline) and france win by one goal but only score exactly two more goals than korea (say korea draw, 2-2, and france win, 4-3, the they are level on points{5}, goal difference {+1}, and goals for {5}), then flip a coin, i guess, because france and korea will be level on points, goal difference, and goals for. from here, i don’t know how it breaks down. maybe it’s goals against, maybe it’s decided by a soju-drinking contest, taking penalty kicks, which teams has the biggest jerks, or maybe arm-wrestling between trainers, i’m not really sure. the fifa world cup site didn’t seem to offer any insight, so maybe one of you diligent folks out there can provide us with a more replete answer.

thus, korea face a near-do-or-die against the swiss. as stated above, it’s certainly possible they can lose to switzerland and still qualify, but that’s placing their fates in the hands of another and that’s a shaky thing. as both games–as all the third games of the group stages will be–will be played simultaneously, korea will have to go for the win.

my head hurts now from all of that–and it might not even be right. i’m sure one of you wary and watchful souls will catch me if i’m wrong–and i’ll be much obliged for it, too.