day 11, pt. 2; day 12 preview

yesterday’s play in the world cup went pretty much according to plan. switzerland took care of togo, 0-2, but not without some anxious moments (i know some of you hard-core cynics out there hate to have any comments made about refereeing decisions, but the togo penalty claim in the first half that was denied–the one where swiss defender muller blatantly stuck out his foot behind himself to trip up togo’s adebayor, who was going around him for an open shot on goal–was perhaps the most disgraceful refereeing decision of the tournament so far). togo were outgunned, in the end, but were never really out of it and never really too outclassed.

ukraine showed what many of us thought they had–but didn’t show against spain–as they blasted saudi arabia, 0-4, in a dominant performance that has them well on track for the next round. they merely need a draw in their last match with tunisia and hope that saudi don’t humiliate spain by some five- or six-goal margin, which might not even happen were spain to play their players’ children in that match.

in the final game of the day, tunisia got off to a flying start and caused spain some anxious twisting before the spaniards levelled right before the break. two goals by fernando torres in the second half saw off the north africans and put the iberians into the next round. this sets up a do-or-die for tunisia in their third match, with ukraine. beat ukraine and the carthage eagles are through; a loss or draw to ukraine and tunisia watch the rest of the tournament like the rest of us will.

tonight’s matches provide some entertainment, though not as much as will other group matches tomorrow and later in the week.

group A: this is pretty straightforward. costa rica and poland play each other with nothing but pride on the line. i like costa rica to win, but it doesn’t really matter. the top two teams in the group, ecuador and host germany play and it’s straightforward, as well: ecuador win or draw and they win the group. germany must beat the south americans to win the group. hoping and thinking ecuador will top this group, these two will play the winners and runners-up of…

…group B: this one’s a little more tricky than group A. the matches tonight–and these are the late games–ppit sweden v. england and paraguay v. trinibago.

• first, paraguay are out.
• second, england win or draw and they win the group.
• third, if sweden beat england, then sweden win the group and england are second, regardless of what trinibago does.
• fourth, if sweden draw with england, then england win the group, sweden finish second, and trinibago go home, regardless of its result.
• fifth, trinibago can qualify for the knockout stage only under this following scenario, which is plausible: england must beat sweden and trinibago must beat paraguay by a combined four-goal difference. right now, trinibago is -2 on goal difference while sweden are +1. so, if england win, 0-3, and trinibago win, 0-1, then trinibago and sweden would finish level on points (4), but trinibago will have a better goal difference, -1 to sweden’s -2.
• sixth, trinibago can qualify for the knockout stage under the following scenario, as well, also feasible: england and trinibago win by a combined three goals and the soca warriors score two more goals against paraguay than do sweden against england. thus, if england win, 1-2, then trinibago must win score at least three goals AND win by two goals, so at least 1-3. ergo, sweden and trinibago are level on points (4) and goal difference (0), but trinibago’s goals for is 3, while sweden’s is 2.
• seventh, i don’t want to think about it because it hurts too much, but some sort of lottery, panty raid, farting contest, penalty kick shootout, or limbo party would determine who goes through…

anyway, in group B, my head says sweden and england draw, sending them both through. my heart says that somehow england and trinibago wrangle wins by enough margins to send trinibago through to the second round. under either scenario i’m predicting, ecuador would play sweden/trinibago at the weekend while sven’s men would play the hosts.

my, oh, my, welcome to the round of 16 were the latter to occur. not a bad way to kickoff the knockout stages, eh?